Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and troposphere, and oceanic temperature since the late 19th century, and its projected continuation. "January 2000 to December 2009 was the warmest decade on record. Throughout the last three decades, the GISS surface temperature record shows an upward trend of about 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. Since 1880, the year that modern scientific instrumentation became available to monitor temperatures precisely, a clear warming trend is present. In total, average global temperatures have increased by about 0.8°C (1.5°F) since 1880".
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level" (Figure 1.1). {WGI 3.2, 4.8, 5.2, 5.5, SPM}. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all major industrialized nations.
Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (Press release June 11, 2012 - IPCC makes progress towards Fifth Assessment Report, which will be released in 2013-2014). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.
HOME (running time 1:33:18). Watch Now on YouTube. Internationally renowned photographer Yann Arthus-Bertrand makes his feature directorial debut with this environmentally conscious documentary produced by Luc Besson, and narrated by Glenn Close. Shot in 54 countries and 120 locations over 217 days, HOME presents the many wonders of planet Earth from an entirely aerial perspective. As such, we are afforded the unique opportunity to witness our changing environment from an entirely new vantage point. In our 200,000 years on Earth, humanity has hopelessly upset Mother Nature's delicate balance. Produced to inspire action and encourage thoughtful debate, HOME poses the prospect that unless we act quickly, we risk losing the only home we may ever have.
An increase in global mean temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, as well as cause a probable expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include a more frequent occurrence of extreme-weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in crop yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, with projections being more robust in some areas than others. If global mean temperature increases to 4 °C (7.2 °F) above preindustrial levels, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits of adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.
Global Warming vs Climate Change - Is There a Difference?
Many times these two terms are used synonymously - as one and the same, however, there is a difference.
Global Warming is one type of climate change. It is an average increase in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and troposphere, and oceanic temperature that causes corresponding changes in global climate patterns and that may occur due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
Climate Change: a long-term (lasting for decades or longer) significant shift in measures of climate, such as temperature, precipitation, wind, or other weather patterns in a specific region or globally resulting in a change in the Earth's climate (unlike global warming, which refers to just one aspect of climate change), especially a change due to an increase in the average atmospheric and oceanic temperatures. For example: melting glaciers imply that life in the Arctic is affected by climate change.
Policy responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possible future geoengineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), whose ultimate objective is:
"The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner". source: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php
Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to assist in adaptation to global warming.
Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention Executive summary
Compilation and synthesis of fifth national communications Executive summary
Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required, and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level. A 2011 report "Bridging the Emissions Gap" by the United Nations Environment Programme suggest that efforts as of the early 21st century to reduce emissions may be inadequate to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target.
Observed Temperature Changes
Evidence for warming of the climate system include observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, "increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows".
The Earth's average surface temperature, expressed as a linear trend, rose by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is very small, estimated to account for less than 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.
Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that "global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record, according to an analysis released Wednesday by researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York".
Estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, "the error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years".
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, "The 2010 nominal value of +0.53 °C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 °C) and 1998 (+0.51 °C), although the differences between the three years are not statistically significant...".
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| NOAA (http://www.noaa.gov/) graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 1950–2011, showing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/13. |
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, "Climate model simulations consistently show that in response to greenhouse gas forcing surface temperatures over land increase more rapidly than over sea". (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. The northern hemisphere warms faster than the southern hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that "even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century".
Initial Causes of Temperature Changes (external forcing)
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.
"Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings".
Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures.
"This result is particularly important because the Arctic, perhaps more than any other region on Earth, is facing dramatic impacts from climate change," says NCAR scientist David Schneider, one of the co-authors. "This study provides us with a long-term record that reveals how greenhouse gases from human activities are overwhelming the Arctic's natural climate system".
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| Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2). Copyright Robert A. Rohde. |
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. "At the turn of the century, Svante Arrhenius calculated that emissions from human industry might someday bring a global warming".
Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F). The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which "is the single most important absorber (between 36% and 66% of the greenhouse effect), and together with clouds makes up between 66% and 85%; CO2 alone makes up between 9 and 26%, while the O3 and the other minor GHG absorbers consist of up to 7 and 8% of the effect, respectively".
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The "atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago. "About three-quarters of the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to fossil fuel burning. The rest is predominantly due to land-use change, especially deforestation".
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.
Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.
2. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications
Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES marker scenarios, models suggest that "the projected range of CO2 concentrations at the end of the century is 550 to 970 ppm (ISAM model) or 540 to 960 ppm (Bern-CC model)". This is an increase of 90–250% above the concentration in the year 1750.
In America, the popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.
Particulates and Soot
Global dimming, was observed from 1961 until at least 1990. The main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion – CO2 and aerosols – have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane. Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide. Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the radiation budget. Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect. Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.
Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. "Black carbon in soot is the dominant absorber of visible solar radiation in the atmosphere", which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by "atmospheric brown clouds". When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere. Part III: Global and Future Implications.
Solar Activity
Solar variations causing changes in solar radiation energy reaching the Earth "have the potential to directly alter climate". The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling effect, while others studies suggest a slight warming effect. Solar variability does not explain late-20th-century warming
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data show the stratosphere has cooled over the period since observations began (1958), though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record. Satellite observations, which have been available since 1979, also show cooling.
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate. Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays. The influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.
Studies in 2011 have indicated that solar activity may be slowing, and that the next solar cycle could be delayed. To what extent is not yet clear; Solar Cycle 25 is due to start in 2020, but may be delayed to 2022 or even longer. It is even possible that the Sun could be heading towards another Maunder Minimum. While there is not yet a definitive link between solar sunspot activity and global temperatures, the scientists conducting the solar activity study believe that global greenhouse gas emissions would prevent any possible cold snap.
"The fact we still see a positive imbalance despite the prolonged solar minimum isn't a surprise given what we've learned about the climate system," lead researcher James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said in a statement. "But it's worth noting, because this provides unequivocal evidence that the sun is not the dominant driver of global warming".
Feedback
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback increases the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process.
The main positive feedback in the climate system is the water vapor feedback. The main negative feedback is radiative cooling through the Stefan–Boltzmann law, which increases as the fourth power of temperature. Positive and negative feedbacks are not imposed as assumptions in the models, but are instead emergent properties that result from the interactions of basic dynamical and thermodynamic processes.
A wide range of potential feedback processes exist, such as Arctic methane release and ice-albedo feedback. Consequentially, potential "tipping points" may exist, which may have the potential to cause abrupt climate change.
For example, the "emission scenarios" used by IPCC in its 2007 report primarily examined greenhouse gas emissions from human sources. In 2011, a joint study by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculated the additional greenhouse gas emissions that would emanate from "the thaw and decay of permafrost carbons", even if policymakers attempt to reduce human emissions from the A1FI scenario to the A1B scenario. NSIDC bombshell: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100.
The team found that even at the much lower level of human emissions, the thawing and decomposition of permafrost would still result in 190 Gt C of permafrost carbon being added to the atmosphere on top of the human sources. Importantly, the team made three extremely conservative assumptions:
- that policymakers will embrace the A1B scenario instead of the A1FI scenario,
- that all of the carbon would be released as carbon dioxide instead of methane, which is more likely and over a 20 year lifetime has 72x the greenhouse warming power of CO2, and
- their model did not project additional temperature rise caused by the release of these additional gases. These very conservative permafrost carbon dioxide emissions are equivalent to about 1/2 of all carbon released from fossil fuel burning since the dawn of the Industrial Age, and is enough to raise atmospheric concentrations by an additional 87±29 ppm, beyond human emissions. "Thawing Permafrost Likely Will Accelerate Global Warming, Study Finds". Once initiated, permafrost carbon forcing (PCF) is irreversible, is strong compared to other global sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2, and due to thermal inertia will continue for many years even if atmospheric warming stops. A great deal of this permafrost carbon is actually being released as methane instead of carbon dioxide. IPCC 2007's temperature projections did not take any of the permafrost carbon emissions into account and therefore underestimate the degree of expected climate change.
UAF - 2010 - Hunting for methane with Katey Walter Anthony
Other research published in 2011 found that increased Arctic methane emissions could instigate significant feedbacks that amplify the warming attributable to the methane alone. The researchers found that a 2.5-fold increase in methane emissions would cause indirect effects that increase the warming 250% above that of the methane alone. For a 5.2-fold increase, the indirect effects would be 400% of the warming from the methane alone.
Climate Models
Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.
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| Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development. Copyright Robert A. Rohde. |
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| A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century accourding to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model has an average warming of 3.0°C. Copyright Robert A. Rohde. |
Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. Results from models can also vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and the model's climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC's 2007 projections is caused by:
- the use of multiple models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations,
- the use of differing estimates of humanities' future greenhouse gas emissions,
- any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost.
The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other physical processes. One of the mathematical results of these complex equations is a prediction whether warming or cooling will occur.
Recent research has called special attention to the need to refine models with respect to the effect of clouds and the carbon cycle.
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
The physical realism of climate models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.
Climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate. Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed "Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast". "Precipitation and total atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades", and hence significantly faster than global climate models predict.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), due in 2014
Effects of Global Warming and Regional Effects of Global Warming
"Detection" is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection does not imply attribution of the detected change to a particular cause. "Attribution" of causes of climate change is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical, ecological and social systems.
9.1.2 What Are Climate Change Detection and Attribution?
1.2 Methods of Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes
Global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Some of these "observed changes in climate and their effects", e.g., based on the instrumental temperature record, have been described in the above section "Observed Temperature Changes". Rising sea levels and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with warming. Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is, with "very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming".[6] {2.2}. Even with policies to reduce emissions, "the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000) projects an increase of global GHG emissions by 25 to 90% (CO2-eq) between 2000 and 2030" (Figure SPM.5).
In the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea level rise for the end of the 21st century (the year 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999) range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper bound given for sea level rise.
"State of the Planet's Oceans Melting Greenland Ice Sheets Contribute to Global Sea Level Rise"
On the Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier - one of Greenland's largest ice fields - scientists measure the movement of the ice sheet as it transports frozen water to the ocean. They discover that the speed of the glacier's march to the sea has tripled in just ten years. Alarm bells sound because at the current melt rate, within a few decades rising seas will have a profound effect on the low-lying countries of the world.
On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in even higher sea level rise. Partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, could contribute 4–6 metres (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea level rise. NSIDC Quick Facts: Quick Facts on Ice Sheets.
Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, with the Arctic expected to be "a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037".
It is calculated that, with high statistical confidence, certain weather events, such as the "extreme heat waves in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were "caused" by global warming". Extremely hot outliers, defined as three standard deviations from climatology records, now cover about 10% of the land surface and, under present trends, would be the norm by 2050. These temperatures are expected to exacerbate the hydrological cycle, with more intense droughts and floods. The effect on tropical cyclone (hurricane) activity is less certain.
Ecological Systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.
"By 2100, ecosystems will be exposed to atmospheric CO2 levels substantially higher than in the past 650,000 years, and global temperatures at least among the highest of those experienced in the past 740,000 years. This will alter the structure, reduce biodiversity and perturb functioning of most ecosystems, and
compromise the services they currently provide. Present and future land-use change and associated landscape fragmentation are very likely to impede species’ migration and thus impair natural adaptation via geographical range shifts" - Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter4.pdf
Dissolved CO2 increases ocean acidity. This process is known as ocean acidification and has been called the "equally evil twin" of global climate change. Increased ocean acidity decreases the amount of carbonate ions, which organisms at the base of the marine food chain, such as foraminifera, use to make structures they need to survive. The current rate of ocean acidification is many times faster than at least the past 300 million years, which included four mass extinctions that involved rising ocean acidity, such as the Permian mass extinction ("The Great Dying"), which killed 95% of marine species. By the end of the century, acidity changes since the industrial revolution would match the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which occurred over 5000 years and killed 35–50% of benthic foraminifera.
Expected Social System Effects
"Climate change vulnerabilities of industry, settlement and society are mainly related to extreme weather events rather than to gradual climate change". Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands, adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas, and small but discernable effects on human health. Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts. Most economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this magnitude of warming.
Climate Change and Agriculture
Under present trends, by 2030 "South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations". Maize production in Southern Africa could decrease by up to 30% while rice, millet, and maize in South Asia could decrease by up to 10%. By 2080, yields in developing countries could decrease by 10% to 25% on average while India could see a drop of 30% to 40%. By 2100, while the population of three billion is expected to double, rice and maize yields in the tropics are expected to decrease by 20–40% because of higher temperatures without accounting for the decrease in yields as a result of soil moisture and water supplies stressed by rising temperatures. Global Warming and Agriculture
Future warming of around 3 °C (by 2100, relative to 1990–2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition. A similar regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effects. Warming above 3 °C could result in crop yields falling in temperate regions, and "can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security".
Discovery Channel - Global Warming, What You Need To Know, with Tom Brokaw. (running time 1:27:32)
Habitat Inundation
In small islands and megadeltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements. This could lead to the "risk of statelessness" for population from countries including the Maldives and Tuvalu and homelessness in countries with low lying areas such as Bangladesh.
Responses to Global Warming Mitigation: Climate Change Mitigation
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GhGs from the atmosphere. Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting, technologies. Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions. Adaptation and Mitigation Options.
In order to limit warming to within the lower range described in the IPCC's AR4 SYR Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers it will be necessary to adopt policies that will limit greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions to one of several significantly different scenarios described in the full report. This will become more and more difficult with each year of increasing volumes of emissions and even more drastic measures will be required in later years to stabilize a desired atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, breaking the prior record set in 2008.
NOAA State of the Climate | National Overview |June 2012 | Significant Events for June 2012
Since even in the most optimistic scenario, fossil fuels are going to be used for years to come, mitigation may also involve carbon capture and storage, "a process that traps CO2 produced by factories and gas or coal power stations and then stores it, usually underground".
Adaptation to Global Warming
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate change, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention. The ability to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development. Even societies with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.
Geoengineering
Geoengineering (the deliberate modification of the climate), has been investigated as a possible response to global warming, e.g. by NASA, and the The Royal Society. Techniques under research fall generally into the categories solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, although various other schemes have been suggested. Research is at a generally early stage, with no large-scale schemes currently deployed.
Views on Global Warming
There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be. These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.
Global Warming Controversy
The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, significantly more pronounced in the mass media than in the scientific literature, regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be.
In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view, though a few organizations hold non-committal positions.
From 1990–1997 in the United States, conservative think tanks mobilized to undermine the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence; argued that global warming will have benefits; and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good.
Politics of Global Warming
Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention refers explicitly to "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent dangerous human interference of the climate system. As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GhG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion. The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen. During negotiations, The Group of 77 (G-77) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs. This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention, which entered into legal effect in 2005.
In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012. "In March 2001, shortly after taking office, US President George W. Bush announced the US's withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, on the grounds that reducing greenhouse gas emissions would increase US economic burdens and that developing nations were not required to reduce their emissions".
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord. Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010) aim "to limit global warming to below 2 °C or 1.5 C?". A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 °C objective. The UNEP assessment takes the 2 °C objective as being measured against the preindustrial global mean temperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C objective, assessed studies generally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter.
In 2010, "The sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the sixth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol took place in Cancun and was hosted by the Government of Mexico". It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.
Public Opinion
The examples and perspective in this section deal primarily with English-speaking territories and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject.
Gallup Polls conducted in 127 countries in 2007 and 2008 reveal that more than a third of the world's population has never heard of global warming. Awareness, opinions about global warming vary worldwide. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief. In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University said that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the US still debate whether climate change is happening". A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found that about 75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly convinced" that the world's climate is changing, compared to 87% in a similar survey in 2006. A January 2011 ICM poll in the UK found "83% view climate change as a current or imminent threat", while 14% said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll asking the same question, though there had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.
A survey in October, 2009 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed decreasing public perception in the U.S. that global warming was a serious problem. All political persuasions showed reduced concern with lowest concern among Republicans, with "35% of Republicans now see solid evidence of rising global temperatures, down from 49% in 2008 and 62% in 2007". The cause of this marked difference in public opinion between the U.S. and the global public is uncertain but the hypothesis has been advanced that clearer communication by scientists both directly and through the media would be helpful in adequately informing the American public of the scientific consensus and the basis for it. The US public appears to be unaware of the extent of scientific consensus regarding the issue, with 59% believing that scientists disagree "significantly" on global warming.
"Gallup surveys in 111 countries in 2010 find Americans and Europeans feeling substantially less threatened by climate change than they did a few years ago, while more Latin Americans and sub-Saharan Africans see themselves at risk". In the United States, "Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Americans now believe there is a significant disagreement within the scientific community over global warming, up seven points from early December just after the so-called “Climategate” scandal involving doctored or deliberately undisclosed scientific evidence first broke". Latin America had the biggest rise in concern, with 73% saying global warming was a serious threat to their families. That global poll also found that people are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the United States where nearly half (47%) of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.
On the other hand, in May 2011 a joint poll by Yale and George Mason Universities found that nearly half the people in the United States (47%) attribute global warming to human activities, compared to 36% blaming it on natural causes. Only 5% of the 35% who were "disengaged", "doubtful", or "dismissive" of global warming were aware that 97% of publishing US climate scientists agree global warming is happening and is primarily caused by humans.
"Global Warming's Six Americas in May 2011" (Haven CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication: Yale University and George Mason University).
Researchers at the University of Michigan have found that the public's belief as to the causes of global warming depends on the wording choice used in the polls.
In the U.S., according to the July 2011 Public Policy Institute of California's (PPIC) Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment , 75% said they believe global warming is a very serious or somewhat serious threat to the economy and quality of life in California.
A September 2011 Angus Reid Public Opinion poll found that Britons (43%) are less likely than Americans (49%) or Canadians (52%) to say that "global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities." The same poll found that 20% of Americans, 20% of Britons and 14% of Canadians think "global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven".
Other Views
Most scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions. However, some scientists and non-scientists question aspects of climate-change science.
The Discovery of Global Warming: The Public and Climate Change (cont.— since 1980).
G8+5 Academies’ joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future
Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls. In the finance industry, Deutsche Asset Management (DeAM) has set up an institutional climate change investment division DB Climate Change Advisors (DBCCA), which has commissioned and published investment research on the issues and debate surrounding global warming. Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions. Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or called for policies to reduce global warming.
Know the Number Carbon Counter Fact Sheet - The Carbon Counter is an accurate, real-time display of the estimated amount of green house gases in our atmosphere. The number is the same figure which is displayed on the real Carbon Counter in New York City.
Etymology
The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on August 8, 1975 when Wallace S. Broecker published his paper "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" in the journal Science.
Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming; previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate modification," because while it was recognized humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going. The National Academy of Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper written by Jule Charney called "Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment", also known as the Charney Report", which said:
"If carbon dioxide continues to increase, the study group finds no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible". - Verner E. Suomi, Chairman Climate Research Board
The report made a distinction between referring to surface temperature changes as global warming, while referring to other changes caused by increased CO2 as climate change.
1988June23: “Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming,” said NASA scientist James E. Hansen in testimony to Congress about climate, specifically referring to global warming. US Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, “Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, part 2″ 100th Cong., 1st sess., 23 June 1988, p. 44. (NASA).
Source: http://colli239.fts.educ.msu.edu/1988/06/23/high-degree-1988/
Reference: NASA http://globalclimatechange.jpl.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=30
Hansen's testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in public discourse.
External Links
NASA - Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt - NASA/Goodard.
NASA - Impact of Climate Warming on Polar Ice Sheets Confirmed - NASA/Goodard.
NASA - Sea Ice May Be on Increase in the Antarctic: A Phenomenon Due to a Lot of 'Hot Air'? - NASA/Goodard.
NASA - Satellites Show Arctic Literally on Thin Ice: Briefing Materials - NASA/Goodard.
Huge Crack Discovered in Antarctic Glacier - Space.com.
Global Warming Facts, Causes and Effects - Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
Climate Hot Map: Global warming Effects Around the World - Union of Concerned Scientists.
Global Warming News - ScienceDaily.
Global Warming - National Wildlife Federation.
NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - A Paleo Perspective on Global Warming - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Global Warming Facts - Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
Prevention and Preparedness
Climate and Health Program | Prevention and Preparedness - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Related Issues
Climate-Sensitive Disease - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Greenhouse Gases - U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Research
Health Effects of Climate Change - National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.
Organizations
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS).
GreenPeace USA.
GreenPeace International.
Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
Sierra Club.
Union of Concerned Scientists.
Friends of the Earth (FOE) UK.
Video
NASA - Greenland Ice (mpg) - NASA/Goodard .
NASA - Arctic Sea Ice Reaches 2010 Minimum Extent - Trent Schindler/NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio.
SVS Animation 3803 - Ice Fronts on the Larsen Ice Shelf (2001-2009) [720p] - NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio.
Global Warming: Global Warming 101 - National Geographic.
Global Warming Videos: What You Need To Know - Discovery Channel.
Interactive
Global Warming | Signs and Sources - Discovery Channel.
Articles
Global Warming: Feature Articles - NASA/Goodard.
Global Warming: Latest Articles - Scientific American.
Teenagers
A Student's Guide to Global Climate Change - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
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